This report examines how UK regions’ GVA is becoming decoupled from energy inputs and emissions. Using data related to economic activity (GVA), energy inputs and emissions generated between 2015 and 2023. Nationally, GVA increased by 13 per cent over this period, with regional growth ranging between 7 and 16 per cent. At the same time, the energy required to produce £1 million of GVA fell by 18 per cent, and greenhouse gas emissions per £1 million of GVA fell by 33 per cent, demonstrating that the economy is generating value more sustainably. Employment trends suggest that some of these improvements are associated with industrial restructuring, with low-emissions sectors expanding faster than high-emissions activities, though further research is needed to disentangle the relative contributions of energy efficiency, technological improvements, and structural change.
Considerable differences remain between regions. All regions experienced reductions in emissions intensity, but the scale varies, from a 58 per cent reduction in the North East of England to 24 per cent in Scotland. The West Midlands recorded a 29 per cent decline overall, yet sub-regional analysis reveals wide variation, with reductions ranging from 18 to 53 per cent depending on local economic structure. Absolute emissions also differ, with metropolitan areas dominated by service sectors achieving lower emissions per unit of GVA than manufacturing-based authorities.
“Pathways to net zero must reflect local economic structures, energy systems and institutional capacities. However, regional differentiation also presents an opportunity to learn from the outliers and study more closely what is driving regional changes in progress towards decarbonisation”
Dr Matt Lyons and Dr Stephen Brand
The findings highlight the importance of granular regional and sub-regional data for understanding the scale and pace of decarbonisation required to meet net-zero targets. They underscore that national averages mask significant spatial variation and that policy approaches must reflect local economic structures, energy systems, and sectoral composition to be effective and equitable.
Meet the Authors
Dr Matt Lyons
Matthew Lyons specialises in regional economic modelling, with particular expertise in econometric multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis. His research focuses on the spatial dimension of economic transformation, including the role of creative industries and innovation, the impacts of climate change and the transition to net zero. He leads the team’s economic modelling portfolio and serves as the environment theme lead on the Local Policy Innovation Partnership (LPIP) Hub project.
Matt joined the City-REDI team in 2021 as a Research Fellow. He holds a PhD and MSc from Cardiff University and a BSc from the University of Plymouth. In 2024, he was elected Secretary of the Regional Science Association International – British and Irish section (RSAI-BIS) and is a member of the International Input Output Association (IIOA). He has led research projects in collaboration with external partners, including the BBC, Nesta’s Creative Policy and Evidence Centre and the West Midlands Combined Authority. His work has been featured in The Independent, The Observer, BBC News, ITV News, and CTV News Calgary.
Dr Stephen Brand
Stephen Brand is the founder of New Horizon Economics and Honorary Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Plymouth.
Formerly Head of the Accounting, Economics and Finance Division, University of Plymouth and Associate Professor of Economics (2019-2025).
Steven has worked as an academic and consultant economist for around 30 years. He specialises in regional economic modelling, in particular social accounting / input-output models and their application. He has published in a range of high-quality international journals, including Regional Studies, PLoS ONE and the European Journal of Operations Management.